Aug 21, 2010

"There is a high chance [60 percent] of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours," is currently what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the "much better organized" cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of the Cape Verde Islands.

The system is moving N NW at 5-10mph.

Projected Path

Now since the system has become better organized and officially is being tracked as 95L, computer forecast models are now out.

Although over the past 24hrs better formation has been observed the system is still a just a cluster of strong thunderstorms. Don't fret over this current path or start booking your flights to Bermuda. Once the storm begins to circulate around a defined center computer models can be more relied upon. Many meteorologists agree that these early hurricane models lose accuracy significantly after day 4 and 5.

The apparent sharp N NW jolt upwards seen in the map above is due to a frontal low pressure system which is currently forming and making its way across the continental United States. That low pressure system seems to be impacting the current computer models significantly as you can see in the forecast track.

If the storm slows or stalls out temporarily it has a possibility of missing this low pressure system that would most likely give it that N NW path towards Bermuda.

Once better convection and cyclonic action is being observed, the computer models will have a much better time coming up with a more accurate path.

And remember I graduated with a Finance degree...I'm no meteorologist. I am just trying to break down all the meteorologist jargon, add a little of my two cents, and make it understanding.

View from the roof of my new place


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