Aug 22, 2010

4th Named Storm of the Year

Since we have a named storm I will make daily posts related to the forecast, bring up to date details to you in plain english and add my thoughts of what the storm might stir up for our coastline

Tropical Storm Danielle has formed and once again become better organized over the past 24 hours. The climate has continually become more favorable and TS Danielle is expected to strengthen over the next 72 hours. We could see a Category 2 storm by Tuesday.

Projected Path

Currently TS Danielle is being impacted by a subtropical wave which is turning her Northward. But the path is expected to change more Westerly in the near future which is a good thing if we are going to get any surf out of her.

Here is the current 5 day model. And remember what I told you, after day 4 and 5 model accuracy falls off sharply. So don't get upset about the North North Westerly path around day 3, 4, and 5. With this type of path we just need to see some intensity so she's strong enough to push waves our way.

This path got me thinking to myself, "How close does a storm need to get to the coast for us to see waves?" It's a tougher question to answer than I thought. There are so many variables effecting where the waves are going to end up. I came up with a quick benchmark example. Later tonight I'll do some more research on the subject and post something.

Everyone remembers the Bill Swell which was ending just about now last year. Here is Bill's dance along the East Coast.

I thought Bill came ALOT closer than what the above track shows. He "grew up" a little quicker than Danielle, becoming a Cat 4 storm where Danielle is now. But that was for a brief period. Now I don't know if the Cat 4 status had much to do with the swell we received but if Danielle intensifies to a Cat 3 and has a slightly more Westerly path to match Bill's I think we should definitely see some needed quality swell.

All we can do now is hope for the best and the local weather conditions cooperate.

I'm going to try and dig up some more info on past storm tracks and the swells that followed.

Mike C.

sources: NHC, Wunderground


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  1. Magic Seaweed has decent resources too - this shows the track from the NHC along with swell arrival & size info

  2. I remember last year MSW did a special forecast for the Bill swell. That was nice. But yea I get a lot of my info from MSW, Wunderground, Swellinfo, and the NHC.

    More Pics and commentary coming tonight

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