Aug 3, 2011
Emily is currently located just to the South of Hispaniola. She is moving West at about 14mph. Sustained winds are at an average of 50mph. A few problems have sprung up overnight though....
Satellite imagery is showing an off-centered area of circulation. This is due to unfavorable upper level winds. Currently the wind is literally shearing off the top of Emily as she moves forward, which is causing her to become a lopsided storm. Her winds are stronger on the northern side than her south side. Not good. We like to see symmetry. Another problem ahead of her are the high altitude regions of eastern Cuba and Hispaniola which will act as a speed bump.
There is no chance for intensification today. We need to wait until she makes it over Hispaniola and Cuba. Thereafter she will be interacting with a trough which will push her on a northerly path over the Bahamas. Conditions will be conducive in this region for slight strengthening/organization.
What all this means for Folly
As the days progress we can better forecast where Emily will be located once she reaches our coastline. Right now though there is still MUCH uncertainty of what type of wave conditions we will see.
SATURDAY
What we do know is that Emily will be just to the south of us Saturday morning. Wave models are showing a longer period swell filling in throughout Saturday. How big this swell is depends on the intensity of Emily once she crosses over the Bahamas, which is hard to tell. All we know is that the swell will most likely be building all Saturday. Local winds Saturday are expected to be light out of the South. Slight bump on the water.
SUNDAY
Sunday Emily is expected to be parallel to our coastline. It is during this time we will be experiencing most of Emily's gift of waves. Swell charts are low-balling wave heights because there is still an area of uncertainty of her location and intensity as I've said before. Nonetheless wave heights are expected to be in the 4+ft range. And since this will be a longer period swell; the waves will have a little punch. Local winds Sunday are expected to also be light out of the SW. Again well see a slight bump on the water.
MONDAY
Monday could be our clean up day. Ha ha for all of you that need to work. Listen though, Monday is far away but the winds are looking decent at least. We might see some leftover swell in the 3ft range.
Lets see what unfolds.
MikeC
Emily is such a tease, she is not going to deliver the goods