Aug 23, 2011
Since yesterday Irene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100mph gusting to 120mph.  This storm is very dangerous and the current path has her heading straight for the Carolinas.  

*This map will update as new data becomes available from the NHC.*  It is important to understand with 5 Day Forecasts like this, the average error on day 5 is 250 miles.  On day 4 it is 200 miles.  That means everyone in the above cone needs to watch Irene very carefully.  With that being said tomorrow (Wednesday) we will get a very good idea of where Irene will make landfall.

Two weather systems are impacting both Irene's heading and intensification.  A trough coming off the coast of the eastern seaboard will be forcing Irene on a more NW pattern over the next 2 days.  After that the trough will interact with Irene even more as she gets closer to the United States forcing her due north. 

The second system is affecting Irene's ability to intensify beyond a Cat 3 storm.  Wind shear coming from the SW will be impacting Irene in the short term which will slow any strengthening.
I'm not sure if the Threat Level Map, above, will update automatically.

Tomorrow is the day where we will get a much better idea of where Irene will track.

So any waves?

You know, I really have no clue what the waves are going to look like.  Obviously we are going to get waves but it is highly dependent on where Irene tracks.  If she gets super close to us and makes landfall over Myrtle Beach we will get straight storm surf.  But if she tracks away from the South Carolina we could see another Earl type swell. 

On the other hand we could see waves hitting our coast by Thursday.

Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty.

Now is the time to make a plan BEFORE a storm hits.  Tomorrow will be the day to see if we need to implement our plans.



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