Aug 1, 2011

Conditions Remain Favorable

Invest 91 L is still plugging along towards the Antilles.  Although the storm has not been upgraded to a tropical depression/cyclone the NHC is still saying "conditions remain conducive for a tropical form."

Early this morning a hurricane hunter airplane was dispatched to investigate the low pressure systems.  Around 1030am the reconnaissance airplane relayed it's information back to NHC Headquarters in Miami.  After flying through the center of the storm they were able to determine that currently the system did not have a defined center of circulation.  This usually is not a good sign for further development but the aircraft took wind readings which were around tropical storm force.  These tropical storm force winds coupled with such favorable atmospheric conditions warrant the NHC to issue a greater and 90% chance this storm will develop into a tropical cyclone before hitting the Antilles. 

Once it impacts the Antilles it is very hard to tell where it may travel at this time.  What forecasters do know is that it could skirt along the islands of the Caribbean or stay in the open Atlantic traveling just off the coast of the islands gathering up fuel (water).  It does not look like it will travel into the Caribbean Sea which is a good sign for the islanders and us who are hoping for waves.

There is still a lot to watch for and the storm is still very, very far away.  Almost anything can happen now.

We are also watching a large wave coming off the coast of Africa.



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