Invest 91 L is still plugging along towards the Antilles.  Although the storm has not been upgraded to a tropical depression/cyclone the NHC is still saying "conditions remain conducive for a tropical depression...to form."

Early this morning a hurricane hunter airplane was dispatched to investigate the low pressure systems.  Around 1030am the reconnaissance airplane relayed it's information back to NHC Headquarters in Miami.  After flying through the center of the storm they were able to determine that currently the system did not have a defined center of circulation.  This usually is not a good sign for further development but the aircraft took wind readings which were around tropical storm force.  These tropical storm force winds coupled with such favorable atmospheric conditions warrant the NHC to issue a greater and 90% chance this storm will develop into a tropical cyclone before hitting the Antilles. 

Once it impacts the Antilles it is very hard to tell where it may travel at this time.  What forecasters do know is that it could skirt along the islands of the Caribbean or stay in the open Atlantic traveling just off the coast of the islands gathering up fuel (water).  It does not look like it will travel into the Caribbean Sea which is a good sign for the islanders and us who are hoping for waves.

There is still a lot to watch for and the storm is still very, very far away.  Almost anything can happen now.

We are also watching a large wave coming off the coast of Africa.

MikeC

From the NHC:

          "It could develop into a tropical depression at anytime.  This system has a high chance...near 100 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48hrs."



The storm is moving around 15knots to the WNW and is becoming more organized every hour.  It's hard to tell but it looks like we should start seeing swell by the weekend.  Don't quote me on that yet though.

Any further developments will be posted here later this evening.

MikeC

You are looking at Low Pressure System 91.  Just yesterday I nearly spoke too soon about the 2011 tropical storm season.  But as I was about to write off the middle part of the season, 91 popped up.  Right now she doesn't look too appealing but if you look closely you can see some circular organization.  

The NHC is calling this a, "large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system."  Yay! The current location of Invest 91 is off the Eastern coast of the Lesser Antilles, where all the big ones are born.  Forecasters are giving a medium chance for development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.  This is a very good sign.  Upper level atmospheric conditions are also favorable for further development.

Invest 91 is expected to track W NW over the next several days.  Another very good sign.


Sit back and let's see what unfolds over the next week.  Of course as new reports come out by the NHC, I will be quick to update here on Folly Surf Photography.

MikeC

sources; nhc, wunderground

Or are you getting a little worried about the tropical season too?  It's basically August and we've only had, what, 3 named storms? 

Nothing on the radar for us....yet

\/ \/ \/ Tuesday, July 27th Waves \/ \/ \/

MikeC

MikeC

Representin' Follyhood!!!!

Why is it so windy at the beach you may ask yourself?  It's because of Invest 98.  She's a disorganized mess of tropical air that can't get her act together.  Even if she did get her act together, 98 is just too close to do anything cool, aka give us waves.

The NHC is saying the upper level winds may begin to organize themselves over the next few days but there is only a 20% chance of 98 becoming a Tropical Cyclone. 

At least something is happening.  Look for disorganized windswell all weekend.

MikeC