Hurricane Danielle

"The period of rapid intensification has ended with a thud." This statement comes from the latest forecast update from the National Hurricane Center. It looks as if the eye wall has become less organized to non existent and a mix of dry air (yellow arrows above) to the West Southwest is sputtering out Danielle's strength. Wind shear is also expected to pick up in the next 24 hrs which may be further detrimental to Danielle's strengthening.

It was just yesterday evening meteorologists were calling for rapid intensification! Hate to say I told you so but like I've been saying all along these storms and the atmospheric conditions around them are very hard to predict.

I never leave you worrying though. Danielle is still predicted to form into a Cat 2 hurricane and grace us with some swell by early next week.

And yes I will be taking photos during the peak days.

Danielle Stats:
Current Winds - 75mph
Speed - 20mph
Direction - WNW


Invest 96L

The NHC has also initiated coverage on another storm, Invest 96L, forming off the Cape Verde islands and they say there is a high chance, 90%, that Invest 96L will form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.


Surf This Morning...

...Wasn't great but it was cleaner than yesterday and lining up. I only took a few shots because the waves looked tiny on film.





sources: NHC, wunderground

It's official she's a hurricane now. "The cyclone appears to be going through a period of rapid intensification," says the NHC. With a decrease in vertical wind sheer and as Danielle travels over warmer water, forecasters believe she will intensify into a major hurricane by the middle of the week. Currently sustained winds are in excess of 75mph.

A subtropical system is cause Danielle to have a more Westerly path which is good for us receiving swell. Towards the middle of the week a break will occur in the system that is keeping her on a W NW heading and she will form a new N NW path. No land impact is expected as she is expected to track to the East of Bermuda.

Will we get swell? It is pretty definite the East Coast will see some Danielle swell. Let's just hope local wind conditions cooperate. Look for the swell to start arriving at the latest early next week.

Surf Pictures Taken This Evening

I'm not sure why there were so many people surfing this afternoon but I got some okay shots. It was a tad dark so again pictures are suffering from motion blur. Trust me aperture was wide open, ISO was up, surfing is just a quick sport and my current lens set up for lack of a better word...sucks.











Surf Etiquette Section Above....



Blah I almost didn't want to post those. Quality in all is suspect. Wish lenses weren't so expensive.

Mike C

Since we have a named storm I will make daily posts related to the forecast, bring up to date details to you in plain english and add my thoughts of what the storm might stir up for our coastline

Tropical Storm Danielle has formed and once again become better organized over the past 24 hours. The climate has continually become more favorable and TS Danielle is expected to strengthen over the next 72 hours. We could see a Category 2 storm by Tuesday.

Projected Path

Currently TS Danielle is being impacted by a subtropical wave which is turning her Northward. But the path is expected to change more Westerly in the near future which is a good thing if we are going to get any surf out of her.

Here is the current 5 day model. And remember what I told you, after day 4 and 5 model accuracy falls off sharply. So don't get upset about the North North Westerly path around day 3, 4, and 5. With this type of path we just need to see some intensity so she's strong enough to push waves our way.



This path got me thinking to myself, "How close does a storm need to get to the coast for us to see waves?" It's a tougher question to answer than I thought. There are so many variables effecting where the waves are going to end up. I came up with a quick benchmark example. Later tonight I'll do some more research on the subject and post something.

Everyone remembers the Bill Swell which was ending just about now last year. Here is Bill's dance along the East Coast.



I thought Bill came ALOT closer than what the above track shows. He "grew up" a little quicker than Danielle, becoming a Cat 4 storm where Danielle is now. But that was for a brief period. Now I don't know if the Cat 4 status had much to do with the swell we received but if Danielle intensifies to a Cat 3 and has a slightly more Westerly path to match Bill's I think we should definitely see some needed quality swell.

All we can do now is hope for the best and the local weather conditions cooperate.

I'm going to try and dig up some more info on past storm tracks and the swells that followed.

Mike C.

sources: NHC, Wunderground

"There is a high chance [60 percent] of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours," is currently what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the "much better organized" cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of the Cape Verde Islands.

The system is moving N NW at 5-10mph.

Projected Path

Now since the system has become better organized and officially is being tracked as 95L, computer forecast models are now out.



Although over the past 24hrs better formation has been observed the system is still a just a cluster of strong thunderstorms. Don't fret over this current path or start booking your flights to Bermuda. Once the storm begins to circulate around a defined center computer models can be more relied upon. Many meteorologists agree that these early hurricane models lose accuracy significantly after day 4 and 5.

The apparent sharp N NW jolt upwards seen in the map above is due to a frontal low pressure system which is currently forming and making its way across the continental United States. That low pressure system seems to be impacting the current computer models significantly as you can see in the forecast track.

If the storm slows or stalls out temporarily it has a possibility of missing this low pressure system that would most likely give it that N NW path towards Bermuda.

Once better convection and cyclonic action is being observed, the computer models will have a much better time coming up with a more accurate path.

And remember I graduated with a Finance degree...I'm no meteorologist. I am just trying to break down all the meteorologist jargon, add a little of my two cents, and make it understanding.


View from the roof of my new place

Far far away a tropical wave boosting off the coast of Africa into the Eastern Atlantic is giving Right Coast surfers something to watch during the current flat spell. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms off the coast of the Caper Verde Islands are beginning to better organize themselves. Mid to upper level weather patterns are also looking favorable for cyclonic development in the next few days.

Although development is favorable right now my guess is as a good as the National Hurricane Center's guess of where the storm will track. We just need to see a better developed center before the computer models can project a path.



source: National Hurricane Center

Just about two months ago (early June) Folly Surf Photography breached the 10,000 visitor milestone. Right there I should have noticed I had some loyal viewers out there. Right now, after looking over my post for edits as I usually do, I said to myself, "What the heck lets see how the views have been doing during my summer abandonment."

Folly Surf Photography has now been viewed 14,342 times.

That's the biggest month over month increases ever for the blog.

That number was pretty shocking to me.

Seems like the loyalty is pretty strong now even when I wasn't posting anything. I feel bad for letting all the viewers down by posting absolutely nothing with basically no notice. Swell season is here and let's pray to the wave gods so I can make up for lost shots



Thank you everyone

Let's keep this going

Mike C.

Well all I can say is I'm back from my "summer vacation." It's been a while since my last post and unfortunately this summer has been mediocre at best for waves. Guess it was a good time to take a hiatus from the blog.

Good thing is I'm back for hurricane season and from here on out. The gutless 2ft windswell we've been receiving all summer doesn't look good on film and I look like a total creep with a huge lens on the beach in the middle of summer.

Another good thing is that yes, I have some pictures from the Colin swell, unfortunately they are of the second day which if you surfed both days was nothing compared to the first day.

And one more thing to look forward too possibly. A large tropical wave is exiting the African coast and entering the warm waters of the Atlantic. Early models are showing the storm to make a beeline for the Right Coast. Lets hope for a Colin track but a bigger punch.

The Pics

There was some cloud cover the morning I took these pics so apologies for the slow shutter speeds (motion blur)





This one should go in one of those learn to surf books. Stick it in the Surfer Etiquette chapter.