Currently, computer models are forecasting Emily to come very close to our coastline towards the end of the weekend.  Some models are predicting she could be come a category 1 storm.  She is still far away but residents from North Carolina to Florida need to keep a close eye on her path.

Nothing much has changed overnight in terms of organization.  If anything she has slowed and began to meander a bit.  Later today she will get back on track moving W NW with little strengthening expected due to some drier weather ahead of her.  Later this week she is expected to be impacted by a trough forcing her on a more northerly path; straight toward us.

If she gets too close to us the surf is going to be stormy and we'll probably experience some heavy rains and coastal flooding.  But if she stays off our coast we could see a quick shot of surf.  Emily will be moving at a quick pace by the time she reaches our coast so unless Emily stalls out the surf won't last long.



Right now it's hard to tell what kind of surf we will get because it is hard to tell how close she will get to the coast.  I'm assuming that is why many of the forecast sites are calling for nothing right now.

Remember though, to keep a close eye on this storm as we get closer to the weekend.

MikeC

So much for saying Emily will just 'skirt' along the islands of the Caribbean Sea.  Looks like she is going to blast her way across all of them.  Flooding is expected for most of the islands.  Don't go off and buy your tickets to Puerto Rico.  This isn't the storm. 

Maximum sustained winds are currently 40mph gusting to around 50mph.  Emily will be traveling over a mix of land and water over the next week which will stifle any real development.  Nonetheless upper level conditions remain favorable so she is expected to hold her tropical storm title until reaching mostly open waters South of the Bahamas.  When she reaches that point she is expected to form into a hurricane due to the 90 plus degree Caribbean Sea, possibly impacting the Bahamas and southern Florida.

After possibly impacting S. Florida she is expected to turn more northerly, away from the US coastline.  This is all going to happen later this weekend into next week.  Depending how she impacts S. Florida and how close/far she gets from our coast, will depend on what type of waves we get.

Keep an eye on the tropics everyone.

MikeC

Invest 91 L is still plugging along towards the Antilles.  Although the storm has not been upgraded to a tropical depression/cyclone the NHC is still saying "conditions remain conducive for a tropical depression...to form."

Early this morning a hurricane hunter airplane was dispatched to investigate the low pressure systems.  Around 1030am the reconnaissance airplane relayed it's information back to NHC Headquarters in Miami.  After flying through the center of the storm they were able to determine that currently the system did not have a defined center of circulation.  This usually is not a good sign for further development but the aircraft took wind readings which were around tropical storm force.  These tropical storm force winds coupled with such favorable atmospheric conditions warrant the NHC to issue a greater and 90% chance this storm will develop into a tropical cyclone before hitting the Antilles. 

Once it impacts the Antilles it is very hard to tell where it may travel at this time.  What forecasters do know is that it could skirt along the islands of the Caribbean or stay in the open Atlantic traveling just off the coast of the islands gathering up fuel (water).  It does not look like it will travel into the Caribbean Sea which is a good sign for the islanders and us who are hoping for waves.

There is still a lot to watch for and the storm is still very, very far away.  Almost anything can happen now.

We are also watching a large wave coming off the coast of Africa.

MikeC

From the NHC:

          "It could develop into a tropical depression at anytime.  This system has a high chance...near 100 percent...of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48hrs."



The storm is moving around 15knots to the WNW and is becoming more organized every hour.  It's hard to tell but it looks like we should start seeing swell by the weekend.  Don't quote me on that yet though.

Any further developments will be posted here later this evening.

MikeC

You are looking at Low Pressure System 91.  Just yesterday I nearly spoke too soon about the 2011 tropical storm season.  But as I was about to write off the middle part of the season, 91 popped up.  Right now she doesn't look too appealing but if you look closely you can see some circular organization.  

The NHC is calling this a, "large tropical wave accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system."  Yay! The current location of Invest 91 is off the Eastern coast of the Lesser Antilles, where all the big ones are born.  Forecasters are giving a medium chance for development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.  This is a very good sign.  Upper level atmospheric conditions are also favorable for further development.

Invest 91 is expected to track W NW over the next several days.  Another very good sign.


Sit back and let's see what unfolds over the next week.  Of course as new reports come out by the NHC, I will be quick to update here on Folly Surf Photography.

MikeC

sources; nhc, wunderground

Or are you getting a little worried about the tropical season too?  It's basically August and we've only had, what, 3 named storms? 

Nothing on the radar for us....yet

\/ \/ \/ Tuesday, July 27th Waves \/ \/ \/

MikeC

MikeC