***Again here is a new template. I like this one. I still need to tweak some things but bare with me I'm pretty busy today***

The one thing everyone has been talking about this week is Hurricane Danielle. I've been losing sleep trying to jockey my work schedule around the favorable tides, figuring out what equipment to rent, and when the peak swell is going to arrive. Good thing is that if I mess my schedule up and miss the opportune times to shoot it looks like I'll have a second chance to get it right with Tropical Storm Earl.

Lot's of good things to look forward to for a beach that has seen basically no surf this year.

Tropical Outlook


Danielle and Earl so cute

After being downgraded to a Tropical Storm for a brief while, Danielle has now "weathered" the unfavorable dry air and wind shear. Computer intensity models are showing she could become a Cat 3 storm soon. Her path is nearly perfect, mirroring the Eastern shoreline approximately 1000 miles off Folly Beach. Her distance from us will be perfect to groom the swell. Hopefully the forecast N/NE local winds let up earlier than expected. Nonetheless it looks like we'll be seeing the beginnings of the swell by late Saturday and have some cleaner conditions by early next week.

Tropical Storm Earl is looking good. He is expected to intensify in the next 48 hours to hurricane status. I'll give more updates on Earl when he gets closer. For now the path is looking good. Check it out below.



Recent Photos

We've actually seen some decent surf over the past couple days also, warming everyone up for the bigger stuff. I know I said yesterday I'd have the rest of the pictures of by last night but I got home super late and none of you were up that late (hopefully).





















All above photos from yesterday Tuesday Aug 25th.


Camera Talk

Shots will only get better this upcoming week not only because of the waves but because of the glass I am renting. As many of you know I shoot with a Nikon D300s and a Nikon 70-300mm G lens. To everyone reading this who has no idea what I'm talking about let me put it this way. The current pairing of my camera and lens is like Jessica Biel (camera) dating the ugliest caveman looking person you know (lens).

I wanted to rent the Nikon 300mm f2.8 but it was out of stock until September 3rd. My next choice was the 400mm f2.8 (this is the lens you see photogs using on the sidelines of football games) but I was nervous that I would have to stand in the street because the focal length is so powerful. Nikon recently released a powerful zoom lens that I decided to go with. It's the Nikon 200-400mm f4 lens. The lens has received rave reviews for its versatility and quality.

The 200-400mm is in the middle

If you didn't read all of that just be happy because the picture quality is going to increase. The lens is getting here tomorrow and I have it for a week.

This lens is huge so if you see me with what looks like an anti-aircraft gun, come say hi!

Here is a great video if you aren't familiar with the size of these prime lenses


That was probably the biggest post I've ever written. Leave a comment or question if you'd like.

Mike C

Tide was a bit low but the waves were a lot better than I was expecting. I got some nice shots and was able to get in and ride a few myself. I'm short on time currently because I have work at 3 but here are a few shots. More to come late tonight after work.

Wish I could post an update for Danielle but I have no time. The swell forecast is looking good though. Shots will be fired next week (camera).








Barrel Sequences and More Snaps Coming Late Tonight



Earlier Today 10:00am
I'll have an updated look at Danielle and some pictures up of today's waves later this afternoon. No pics yet because I'm on the way to the beach now.... updating this post via iPhone.

Good thing is I was able to get off sunday and Monday from work, have to work in the morning on Tuesday though.

Mike C.

Hurricane Danielle

"The period of rapid intensification has ended with a thud." This statement comes from the latest forecast update from the National Hurricane Center. It looks as if the eye wall has become less organized to non existent and a mix of dry air (yellow arrows above) to the West Southwest is sputtering out Danielle's strength. Wind shear is also expected to pick up in the next 24 hrs which may be further detrimental to Danielle's strengthening.

It was just yesterday evening meteorologists were calling for rapid intensification! Hate to say I told you so but like I've been saying all along these storms and the atmospheric conditions around them are very hard to predict.

I never leave you worrying though. Danielle is still predicted to form into a Cat 2 hurricane and grace us with some swell by early next week.

And yes I will be taking photos during the peak days.

Danielle Stats:
Current Winds - 75mph
Speed - 20mph
Direction - WNW


Invest 96L

The NHC has also initiated coverage on another storm, Invest 96L, forming off the Cape Verde islands and they say there is a high chance, 90%, that Invest 96L will form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.


Surf This Morning...

...Wasn't great but it was cleaner than yesterday and lining up. I only took a few shots because the waves looked tiny on film.





sources: NHC, wunderground

It's official she's a hurricane now. "The cyclone appears to be going through a period of rapid intensification," says the NHC. With a decrease in vertical wind sheer and as Danielle travels over warmer water, forecasters believe she will intensify into a major hurricane by the middle of the week. Currently sustained winds are in excess of 75mph.

A subtropical system is cause Danielle to have a more Westerly path which is good for us receiving swell. Towards the middle of the week a break will occur in the system that is keeping her on a W NW heading and she will form a new N NW path. No land impact is expected as she is expected to track to the East of Bermuda.

Will we get swell? It is pretty definite the East Coast will see some Danielle swell. Let's just hope local wind conditions cooperate. Look for the swell to start arriving at the latest early next week.

Surf Pictures Taken This Evening

I'm not sure why there were so many people surfing this afternoon but I got some okay shots. It was a tad dark so again pictures are suffering from motion blur. Trust me aperture was wide open, ISO was up, surfing is just a quick sport and my current lens set up for lack of a better word...sucks.











Surf Etiquette Section Above....



Blah I almost didn't want to post those. Quality in all is suspect. Wish lenses weren't so expensive.

Mike C

Since we have a named storm I will make daily posts related to the forecast, bring up to date details to you in plain english and add my thoughts of what the storm might stir up for our coastline

Tropical Storm Danielle has formed and once again become better organized over the past 24 hours. The climate has continually become more favorable and TS Danielle is expected to strengthen over the next 72 hours. We could see a Category 2 storm by Tuesday.

Projected Path

Currently TS Danielle is being impacted by a subtropical wave which is turning her Northward. But the path is expected to change more Westerly in the near future which is a good thing if we are going to get any surf out of her.

Here is the current 5 day model. And remember what I told you, after day 4 and 5 model accuracy falls off sharply. So don't get upset about the North North Westerly path around day 3, 4, and 5. With this type of path we just need to see some intensity so she's strong enough to push waves our way.



This path got me thinking to myself, "How close does a storm need to get to the coast for us to see waves?" It's a tougher question to answer than I thought. There are so many variables effecting where the waves are going to end up. I came up with a quick benchmark example. Later tonight I'll do some more research on the subject and post something.

Everyone remembers the Bill Swell which was ending just about now last year. Here is Bill's dance along the East Coast.



I thought Bill came ALOT closer than what the above track shows. He "grew up" a little quicker than Danielle, becoming a Cat 4 storm where Danielle is now. But that was for a brief period. Now I don't know if the Cat 4 status had much to do with the swell we received but if Danielle intensifies to a Cat 3 and has a slightly more Westerly path to match Bill's I think we should definitely see some needed quality swell.

All we can do now is hope for the best and the local weather conditions cooperate.

I'm going to try and dig up some more info on past storm tracks and the swells that followed.

Mike C.

sources: NHC, Wunderground

"There is a high chance [60 percent] of this system becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours," is currently what the National Hurricane Center is saying about the "much better organized" cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of the Cape Verde Islands.

The system is moving N NW at 5-10mph.

Projected Path

Now since the system has become better organized and officially is being tracked as 95L, computer forecast models are now out.



Although over the past 24hrs better formation has been observed the system is still a just a cluster of strong thunderstorms. Don't fret over this current path or start booking your flights to Bermuda. Once the storm begins to circulate around a defined center computer models can be more relied upon. Many meteorologists agree that these early hurricane models lose accuracy significantly after day 4 and 5.

The apparent sharp N NW jolt upwards seen in the map above is due to a frontal low pressure system which is currently forming and making its way across the continental United States. That low pressure system seems to be impacting the current computer models significantly as you can see in the forecast track.

If the storm slows or stalls out temporarily it has a possibility of missing this low pressure system that would most likely give it that N NW path towards Bermuda.

Once better convection and cyclonic action is being observed, the computer models will have a much better time coming up with a more accurate path.

And remember I graduated with a Finance degree...I'm no meteorologist. I am just trying to break down all the meteorologist jargon, add a little of my two cents, and make it understanding.


View from the roof of my new place

Far far away a tropical wave boosting off the coast of Africa into the Eastern Atlantic is giving Right Coast surfers something to watch during the current flat spell. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms off the coast of the Caper Verde Islands are beginning to better organize themselves. Mid to upper level weather patterns are also looking favorable for cyclonic development in the next few days.

Although development is favorable right now my guess is as a good as the National Hurricane Center's guess of where the storm will track. We just need to see a better developed center before the computer models can project a path.



source: National Hurricane Center